Matt Van Epps just won Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District
- The Chairman
- 15 hours ago
- 4 min read
Matt Van Epps just won Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District in a special election held on December 2, 2025.
1. The Congressional District: TN-07
District: Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District (TN-07) (Wikipedia)
Representative-elect: Republican Matt Van Epps, succeeding Republican Mark Green (Wikipedia)
Where it is: Parts of Middle and West Tennessee, with major population centers in:
Davidson County (Nashville)
Montgomery County (Clarksville)
Williamson County (Franklin/Brentwood) (Wikipedia)
Political lean: Cook PVI roughly R+10 – a red but competitive district by national standards. (Wikipedia)
Profile: Mix of urban, suburban, and rural voters. Historically Republican, but Democrats have recently been overperforming relative to previous cycles. (The Guardian)
2. Results of the Matt Van Epps Race
This was the 2025 special election to replace Rep. Mark Green, who resigned in July 2025 for a private sector role. (Wikipedia)
General election (Dec 2, 2025): (Wikipedia)
Matt Van Epps (Republican):
Votes: 96,988
Share: 53.9%
Aftyn Behn (Democrat):
Votes: 81,044
Share: 45.1%
Margin: About 8.9 points, far closer than the 22-point Trump margin in 2024 in the same district. (The Guardian)
Both parties poured serious money and national attention into this race, and it was widely viewed as an early barometer for the 2026 midterms and for Donald Trump’s continued pull in red districts. (The Wall Street Journal)
Matt Van Epps Holds the Line in Tennessee’s 7th — But the Margin Sends a Warning
On December 2, 2025, voters in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District headed to the polls for a special election that most pundits initially wrote off as a routine Republican hold.
Instead, they got a wake-up call.
Republican Matt Van Epps, a West Point graduate, Army combat veteran, and former Tennessee Department of General Services commissioner, won the race—but by a far slimmer margin than Republicans are used to in this district. (Wikipedia)
In a seat that Donald Trump carried by roughly 22 points in 2024, Van Epps defeated Democratic State Representative Aftyn Behn by about 8.9 percentage points, earning 53.9% of the vote to Behn’s 45.1%. (The Guardian)
The GOP kept the seat.But the numbers tell a deeper story.
A Deep-Red District That Just Got Less Comfortable
Tennessee’s 7th District (TN-07) covers parts of Middle and West Tennessee, including key population centers around Nashville (Davidson County), Clarksville (Montgomery County), and Franklin (Williamson County). It’s a district with a Republican tilt (Cook PVI around R+10) and a blend of rural communities, fast-growing suburbs, and urban neighborhoods. (Wikipedia)
For years, Republicans have treated TN-07 as safe territory. Former Rep. Mark Green regularly won by blowout margins before resigning in July 2025 to enter the private sector, triggering this special election. (Wikipedia)
That’s what makes the final numbers so important:
Republicans won, but with a single-digit margin.
Democrats overperformed their historical baseline by more than 10 points.
Millions of dollars flowed in from both parties, turning a normally sleepy race into a national proxy battle for the 2026 midterms. (The Wall Street Journal)
The Campaign: Affordability vs. Agenda
The battle lines were familiar:
Matt Van Epps ran as a Trump-aligned conservative, emphasizing border security, veterans’ issues, and the cost of living—while warning that Democratic policies were driving inflation and undermining Tennessee values. (The Wall Street Journal)
Aftyn Behn, branded by critics as the “AOC of Tennessee,” leaned into a progressive message, focusing heavily on grocery prices, housing costs, and healthcare affordability, while energizing younger and more urban voters. (The Guardian)
National figures took notice. Trump rallied his base for Van Epps, while Democratic leaders and progressive activists poured resources into Behn’s effort. Outside groups spent heavily on TV and digital ads, with Republican-aligned organizations ultimately outspending Democrats. (The Wall Street Journal)
In the end, Van Epps held the district, but Behn’s performance showed that even in “safe” red districts, voter frustration over the economy and cost of living can tighten the map.
What Van Epps’ Win Means Going Forward
There are three big takeaways from this race:
Republicans Still Have the Edge — For NowThe GOP brand is still strong in Tennessee’s 7th. Van Epps’ military background, pro-life endorsements, and alignment with Trump’s agenda helped him consolidate enough support to keep the seat in Republican hands. (Instagram)
Democrats See Opportunity Where They Used to See a WallFor Democrats, losing by 8–9 points in a district they previously lost by more than 20 is a data point they will use to raise money, recruit candidates, and argue that no Republican seat is truly untouchable heading into 2026. (The Guardian)
The Economy Is the Real BattlegroundBoth campaigns talked about the same thing in different ways: the cost of living. From grocery prices to housing to healthcare, voters are clearly feeling squeezed. Whoever can credibly speak to take-home pay, inflation, and opportunity will have the edge in this district—and many others like it—going forward. (The Guardian)
Final Thought
Matt Van Epps’ victory in Tennessee’s 7th is both a win and a warning for Republicans.
The win keeps a crucial seat in GOP hands and adds another Trump-aligned Army veteran to Congress.The warning is in the margin: a deep-red district just flashed yellow.
If Republicans want to turn this into a long-term advantage, they’ll need to do more than rely on past margins. They’ll have to deliver on pocketbook issues, protect taxpayers, and make the case that conservative policies—not progressive experiments—actually make life more affordable and more free for families in Middle Tennessee and across America.
Wonderful
Nashville here I come! When only God knows- 🙏