top of page
Search

Spot Price of Silver a Year Ago vs. Current

📌 1. Spot Price of Silver a Year Ago vs. Current

📍 One Year Ago

  • Around January 2025, silver was trading at roughly $31.30 per ounce (end of month close) according to historical price charts. (StatMuse)

📍 Current Spot Price (January 2026)

  • Silver has surged dramatically and, as of January 23, 2026, traded around $100+ per ounce, a historic high — more than a 200 % increase over the past year. (Reuters)

  • Other real-time data also shows spot prices near the $90–$95 range depending on the exchange and time. (Investing.com)

Summary: From roughly $31/oz a year ago to over $90–$100/oz today — an exceptional rally in precious metals, driven by macroeconomic stress and investor demand.


📌 2. Fibonacci Ratio (in Markets)

📍 What It Is

  • The Fibonacci sequence (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89…) leads to ratios like 61.8 % and 161.8 %, which technical analysts use as retracement and extension levels in price charts. (Gold Price Forecast)


📍 Application to Silver

  • Analysts sometimes map silver prices to Fibonacci sequence levels (e.g., $55 → $89 → $144) to project resistance and future targets. (GoldBroker)

  • A 161.8 % extension from certain prior moves corresponds to levels near $88, which some technical models have identified as significant. (Finance Magnates)

Takeaway: Fibonacci ratios are a mathematical pattern used primarily in technical analysis to help spot potential support/resistance levels or targets based on past price moves. They don’t predict fundamentals by themselves but are widely used by traders.


📌 3. Crises of Confidence & the Money Supply

📍 Crises of Confidence

  • A crisis of confidence occurs when investors or the public lose trust in financial systems, currencies, or governments — often triggering a flight into hard assets (gold, silver, real estate).

  • Periods like the 2008 financial crisis or stressful geopolitical eras weaken faith in banks and fiat currencies, boosting demand for safe-haven assets like precious metals. (Historical pattern seen across markets.) (MacroTrends)


📍 Money Supply Dynamics

  • Money supply measures (like M2) reflect how much currency and liquid assets are in circulation.

  • High money supply growth — especially during crisis responses (like quantitative easing) — can lead to concerns about inflation or loss of purchasing power.

  • When confidence erodes, investors may seek assets outside conventional finance, increasing prices in gold and silver markets.

Why It Matters for Silver:

  • Low yielding assets like gold and silver often benefit when real interest rates are low and confidence in currency value weakens, because they are stores of value.

  • Central bank actions to increase money supply (e.g., Fed rate cuts) can reduce the opportunity cost of holding precious metals, driving demand and price.


📌 4. Price Discovery

📍 What Is Price Discovery?

  • Price discovery is the process by which markets determine the price of an asset through trading activity — the interaction of supply & demand in real time.

📍 In Silver Markets

  • Silver’s price discovery occurs mainly on commodity exchanges (e.g., COMEX, LBMA global fixes), where buyers and sellers match bids and offers.

  • It reflects not just current transactions, but expectations about future supply and demand (industrial use, jewelry, investment, ETFs).

  • During volatile rallies like this, price discovery can become dislocated — meaning prices may overshoot “fundamentals” due to speculation, short covering, or liquidity constraints. (Investing.com)

Key Point:

  • Effective price discovery means the market price accurately reflects all known information, but during crises or rapid rallies, prices can extend beyond intrinsic values as traders compete for scarce assets.


🧠 How These Pieces Connect

  • Money supply expansion + crisis of confidence → investors shift into tangible assets like silver and gold.

  • Price discovery in commodities reflects this shift and can accelerate when liquidity is tight and speculative trading increases.

  • Fibonacci ratios provide a technical lens on price movements but don’t drive market fundamentals.



 
 
 

Comments

bottom of page